Golden Globes: Predicting the Winners and Losers

It’s here! That time of year where cinephiles like myself crawl out of our basements and do our best impression of NFL analysts, predicting the outcome of awards shows as if there were a perfect system of guessing. Without further ado, here are my picks for the film categories of tonight’s award show (You really don’t want my TV picks).

Best Foreign Language Film

While France’s “The Intouchables” was a big hit for emotional audiences, most critics thought it was a little too sappy and the film failed to make a nomination with the Academy. Norway and Denmark have two quality entries with “Kon-Tiki” and “A Royal Affair.” but I think the real battle is between “Rust and Bone” and “Amour.” Seeing how the Globes also gave a nomination to Marion Cotillard, I give “Rust and Bone” the edge.

Winner: “Rust and Bone”

Best Animated Film

“Brave” opened to mostly-good reviews last summer, but it is nowhere near the best film Pixar has developed. I’m surprised “Hotel Transylvania” even made the final list, to be honest. “ParaNorman” was a much better animated film and should have taken its nomination. I think “Wreck-It Ralph” will walk away with the award because it bridged the gap between kids and adults and had some great animation.

Winner: “Wreck-It Ralph”

Best Original Score

This is usually a pretty tough category because a lot of music is tied to how you felt about the film. It is possible for a bad film to have a great score. In the case of “Cloud Atlas,” my vote will attempt to prove that. Great nominees, but the mediocre “Atlas” had some fantastic music.

Winner: “Cloud Atlas”

Best Original Song

In my eyes, there’s really only 3 nominees here. No one’s really seen “Stand Up Guys” and I doubt the Hollywood Foreign Press loved “Act of Valor” all that much. The remaining choices are all great, but I think Adele’s “Skyfall” has the best chance of running off with the award. I would love for The Civil Wars to have a Golden Globe, but it would be too weird for Taylor Swift to also have one.

Winner: “Skyfall”

Best Screenplay

This is always one of my favorite awards because you often get nominations for films that are otherwise overlooked. Though that isn’t the case this year, there are some great nominees. Quentin Tarantino is usually a safe bet, but I like the momentum that “Silver Linings Playbook” has going into the show. Plus, “Django Unchained” wasn’t one of Tarantino’s stronger scripts. If I’m wrong, it’ll probably be Mark Boal (“Zero Dark Thirty”) standing at the podium.

Winner: “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Director

I would really be happy for any of these directors to win, especially Ben Affleck (mainly because it would be a funny message to Academy voters). I think the Hollywood Foreign Press is going to stick with a very traditional vote, though, so I expect Steven Spielberg to get the award.

Winner: “Lincoln”

Best Supporting Actress

Though all 5 women (Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Nicole Kidman and Helen Hunt) are brimming over with talent, the race is really between Sally Field and Anne Hathaway. Since this is an awards show that has special categories for musicals, I’m going with “Les Miserables” and the “I Dreamed a Dream” singer.

Winner: Anne Hathaway “Les Miserables”

Best Supporting Actor

This is always a hotly contested race and this year isn’t any different. Alan Arkin is probably the weak link here, though I loved him in “Argo.” Aside from Arkin, ANY of these guys are likely to win. If “Django Unchained” didn’t have two nominees here, I would probably go with Christoph Waltz. He and Leonardo DiCaprio will probably split that film’s votes though. Philip Seymour Hoffman seems like the most likely candidate to benefit from this and I think his performance was better than Tommy Lee Jones anyway.

Winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman “The Master”

Best Actress – Musical/Comedy

The Golden Globes has a bad reputation of nominating big-name people just so they’ll show up on the red carpet. I’m hoping this is the only reason why Meryl Streep’s name is on this list. Assuming Streep doesn’t pull a shocker, this award has a 98% chance of ending up in Jennifer Lawrence’s hands.

Winner: Jennifer Lawrence “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Actor – Musical/Comedy

I have a feeling this award is between Bradley Cooper and Hugh Jackman. The other guys are receiving very little buzz and/or only a few people saw their films. Again, this is an awards show that especially enjoys musicals, so I think Jackman will win for his terrific effort in “Les Miserables.”

Winner: Hugh Jackman “Les Miserables”

Best Actress – Drama

I just saw “The Impossible” on Friday so I’m rooting for Naomi Watts, but I think Jessica Chastain will have her name called, as “Zero Dark Thirty” was better received by critics and is getting more award recognition.

Winner: Jessica Chastain “Zero Dark Thirty”

Best Actor – Drama

While Best Actress is a little weaker than usual this year, Best Actor is a mad dash to the finish. In most other years, I think 3 or 4 of these nominees would steal the award. I think the only person who can upset Daniel Day-Lewis is Joaquin Phoenix, though. Both men deliver amazing performances.

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis “Lincoln”

Best Picture – Comedy/Musical

It’s either “Les Miserables” or “Silver Linings Playbook.” Simple as that. I’m going to go against my previous advice and say that “Silver Linings Playbook” is able to overcome the Hollywood Foreign Press’ love for musicals.

Winner: “Silver Linings Playbook”

Best Picture – Drama

Arguably the toughest choice in this year’s awards season is naming the best film of the year. I can think of 5 different reasons why the Hollywood Foreign Press would pick any of the 5 different nominees. Faced with this tough decision, I think they’ll make the safest choice and crown “Lincoln” as the best dramatic film.

Winner: “Lincoln”

That’s it for tonight’s awards. Feel free to disagree with my choices or come back after the show and gloat about me being wrong.

Happy viewing.

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